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Can the Gold and Oil Markets Price Performance Telegraph Future U.S. Economic Conditions?

May one attempt to forecast the long term future dynamic of the economy by examining the nascent or long term price breakouts (sometimes measured in multi-decade patterns) of economically important sectors of equities or commodities such as the gold and oil markets and to project forward further significant long term price progress in the group?
 

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Why the Gold Bull Market May Begin its Last Leg Sooner Than You Think

The gold market in February 2009 is trending up towards its all time high of $1,023 per ounce made on March 18, 2008, after a correction that lasted for seven months. The price of gold in this upward trend may reach as high as $3,700. I conceive that this price move may transpire within the next two years.

As bubbles tend to repeat over history, there are a number of markets that can be instructive in determining the dollar amount and duration of a long cycle.

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Stocks, Gold, Oil, the Dollar, and Inflation: A Potpourri in the Current "Unwinding of Debt" Crisis

We have seen the gold price peak at over $1,000 per ounce at the time of the Bear Stearns bailout, and decline into a correction afterwards. I have written on my website in previous articles for many months that I was expecting a temporary pause in the upward progress of the gold and oil markets, and in many other inflation hedge style investments.

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Don't Fight Yesterday's Investment Battle: Why Betting on Last Year's Bull Market Always Fails

Just when a new bull market in a category of investments (stocks or commodities, etc.) is percolating to the top, investors may still be immersed in the psychology of investing in the previous bull market's most favored investment. As the maturing trend dies out, investors may still try to find reasons to invest in that trend, even though it may be actually reversing, with some investors playing yesterday's game. This may happen just when the long-term trend for the mature trend may have turned down.

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Bulletin: October 24, 2007 - What Now on Gold?

Editor's note: please see the current update to this article.

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When the Gold Market Speaks a Thousand Words

In the last three and a half decades we have encountered both periods of relative stability in the gold price, but also periods of extreme volatility. When President Nixon took the United States off the gold standard in 1971, the result was a 9 year bull market in the price of the golden metal. There were two inflationary waves in the 1970's, the first peaking in 1974-5, and the second more severe wave peaking in the late 1970's and early 1980's. This period was also marked by escalating oil prices, driven by the actions of an Arabian cartel.

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